Live from the Vegas sports book: a personalized guide to the 2012 NFL Divisional Playoffs

The 2012 NFL Divisional Playoff Round is here and I may or may not be in Vegas actively exercising my “invested” interest in all four of these games (no pun intended).  Here’s my take on the outcome, with a Las Vegas spin: welcome to Bat Country.

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Odds: New Orleans favored by 3.5 points

Physical attack will key the 49ers to an upset win: If there was ever an example of an immovable object smacking an unstoppable force, then look no further than the San Francisco defense and New Orleans’ offense.  I understand why Vegas odds have the Saints as road favorites – they’re indisputably the hottest team in the NFL right now.  However, San Francisco has been the most physical team in the NFL this season, and offers an outdoor stadium element that the Dome-adjusted Saints always struggle with.

On the other side, New Orleans has weapons galore. They can beat you with the run, pass, and everything in between, but the fact remains – they simply are not the same team when playing on the road and outside of the comfortable confines of their home field.  While it’s also hard to bet against Drew Brees in a game like this, there is just something about the 49ers this year that I absolutely love.  Head coach Jim Harbaugh has instilled a certain hunger within his team that can’t be denied. I think they will find success in pounding the rock while being able to fully entrust their defense in keeping the Saints (mostly) at bay.  Look for 49er running backs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter to have a big game.  Smash mouth football is back.

Prediction: San Francisco 20 – New Orleans 17

 

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Vegas Odds: New England favored by 14 points

Huge point spread aimed at “controlled” gambling degenerates like me: Stay Classy, Vegas. I hate to love you.  Any principled Tebow detractor would not waver in betting against Denver—even if faced with a two-touchdown line.

Well, I am nothing if not a man of principle.

I guess my feelings can best be summed up in a conversation I recently had with a friend of mine who was contemplating which side to take. Of course the huge point spread had him hesitating, but his exhaustion of all things Tebow eventually brought out the most “rational” decision: there’s no way he would bet with or for Tebow regardless of how many points he is favoring (principle) and there is no way he will be staying away from this game (true gambler’s irrationality). Advantage: Patriots.

Prediction: New England 38 – Denver 17

 

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Odds: Baltimore favored by 7.5 points

Similarities abound. Stout defenses, heavily run offenses and a lack of trust in Quarterbacks make this game a toss up:  In his fourth season as the Ravens quarterback, Joe Flacco regressed in every major statistical category.  The promise of Flacco as an elite NFL quarterback has become a weary wait-and -see that should have the Ravens tempering their expectations for future seasons.  While he certainly is a solid quarterback, there is no question that Flacco has had some shaky moments when pressed onto the big stage.  What’s more, it would be hard pressed for me to call him a substantial upgrade over Texans rookie quarterback T.J Yates.  Flacco certainly has his moments, but when he is bad, the team seems to deflate.  This season is one of those, “if not now…when?” moments for the Ravens as a franchise. If they cannot get past Houston, and make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl appearance, it will not be easy to move forward this offseason.

Yates has not been exceptionally good or bad since taking over as Houston‘s quarterback. However, he has shown a propensity to manage a game effectively as the team continues to lean on a running game – one of the NFL’s best in 2011.  One of the favorite moments this season was wide receiver Andre Johnson’s touchdown grab in last week’s playoff game against the Bengals. Johnson is a class act player who has been marred by injuries for much of this season. Not only was it his first career playoff touchdown reception, the score helped throw the hammer down on the first playoff victory in Texans franchise history.  This is not the same team as seasons past; their defense is by far the most improved in the NFL. They have shown amazing resilience by weathering injuries at many key positions – the pressure to win will be squarely on the shoulders of their opponent.

Prediction:  Houston 27 – Baltimore 20

 

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

Vegas Odds: Green Bay favored by 7.5 points

The Giants have the defensive personnel to slow down Aaron Rodgers:  It should be no secret that quarterbacks, wide receivers, and all aerial assault weapons will be engaged in this grudge match.  However, the key matchup will be the Giants defensive line versus the Packers offense and their ability to protect Aaron Rodgers.  New York’s defense has really come into its own the past few weeks, mostly through the leadership of second year stud, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.  The beautiful thing about the Giants defensive line is their talent at placing pressure on quarterbacks without much help from the blitz, allowing the rest of their secondary to roam free to make plays, ultimately giving the Giants the ability to keep the maximum amount of coverage available on the field to slow down the NFL’s best quarterback.

Of course, this is so much easier said than done.

One thing about the Packers is that they are completely one-dimensional – their run game is almost non-existent.  This is partially due to the “all-world abilities” of Aaron Rodgers and partially due to a complete lack of playmaking ability from the running backs on their roster.  In any case, Rodgers is the Man and I don’t see that stopping here. The Giants certainly have a shot in this game if they can get consistent pressure on Rodgers and perhaps force a few turnovers. However, Ithink the Giant’s will cover Vegas’ end of the game…but will fall just short.  My sincerest apologies to devout True Blue fans: my Dad and my Managing Editor here at Gossipsports. I’m sure I am leaving quite the impression on both of you.

Prediction: Green Bay 31 – New York 24